Evergreening and operational risk under price competition

“Evergreening” is a strategy wherein an innovative pharmaceutical firm introduces an upgrade of its current product when the patent on this product expires. The upgrade is introduced with a new patent and is designed to counter competition from generic manufacturers that seek to imitate the firm's existing product. However, this process is fraught with uncertainty because the upgrade is subject to stringent guidelines and faces approval risk. Thus, an incumbent firm has to make an upfront production capacity investment without clarity on whether the upgrade will reach the market. This uncertainty may also affect the capacity investment of a competing manufacturer who introduces a generic version of the incumbent's existing product but whose market demand depends on the success or failure of the upgrade. We analyze a game where capacity investment occurs before uncertainty resolution and firms compete on prices thereafter. Capacity considerations that arise due to demand uncertainty introduce new factors into the evergreening decision. Equilibrium analysis reveals that the upgrade's estimated approval probability needs to exceed a threshold for the incumbent to invest in evergreening. This threshold for evergreening increases as the intensity of competition in the generic market increases. If evergreening is optimal, the incumbent's capacity investment is either decreasing or nonmonotonic with respect to low end market competition depending on whether the level of product improvement in the upgrade is low or high. If the entrant faces a capacity constraint, then the probability threshold for evergreening is higher than the case where the entrant is not capacity constrained. Finally, by incorporating the risk‐return trade‐off that the incumbent faces in terms of the level of product improvement versus the upgrade success probability, we can characterize policy for a regulator. We show that the introduction of capacity considerations may maximize market coverage and/or social surplus at incremental levels of product improvement in the upgrade. This is contrary to the prevalent view of regulators who seek to curtail evergreening involving incremental product improvement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 71–89, 2016     

光互连网络中资源预留的多级光互连仲裁机制

基于资源预留策略提出一种多级光互连仲裁机制,通过将网络分级实现快速、高效的仲裁。多优先级数据缓存队列的传输节点设计,提供了不同类型流量的差异化传输;通过预约式两级仲裁机制,实现网络的完全公平与100%的高吞吐率。设计并对快速仲裁通道进行了合理布局,极大地缩短了仲裁延迟。仿真结果表明:采用基于资源预留的分级仲裁策略,在多种流量模式下所有节点均获得公平的服务。与Feather Weight相比,分级仲裁策略吞吐率提高17%;与2-pass相比,仲裁延迟减少15%,同时,功耗减少5%。     

测试性增长中资源优化配置模型及求解

良好的测试性设计对系统维修性具有重要意义,测试性增长试验通过一系列测试性设计缺陷发现和纠正措施,可保证系统测试性指标达到设计要求。针对基于延缓纠正的测试性增长过程中的资源配置问题进行研究,基于增长试验目标是否明确和试验资源是否受限制问题构建资源优化配置模型,并提出一种基于拉格朗日松弛和本地搜索的快速优化算法。仿真结果表明:该模型能够有效指导测试性增长中的资源优化配置问题,所提混合优化方法能够高效、准确地求解整数规划问题。     

A bicriterion approach to common flow allowances due window assignment and scheduling with controllable processing times

We investigate a single‐machine scheduling problem for which both the job processing times and due windows are decision variables to be determined by the decision maker. The job processing times are controllable as a linear or convex function of the amount of a common continuously divisible resource allocated to the jobs, where the resource allocated to the jobs can be used in discrete or continuous quantities. We use the common flow allowances due window assignment method to assign due windows to the jobs. We consider two performance criteria: (i) the total weighted number of early and tardy jobs plus the weighted due window assignment cost, and (ii) the resource consumption cost. For each resource consumption function, the objective is to minimize the first criterion, while keeping the value of the second criterion no greater than a given limit. We analyze the computational complexity, devise pseudo‐polynomial dynamic programming solution algorithms, and provide fully polynomial‐time approximation schemes and an enhanced volume algorithm to find high‐quality solutions quickly for the considered problems. We conduct extensive numerical studies to assess the performance of the algorithms. The computational results show that the proposed algorithms are very efficient in finding optimal or near‐optimal solutions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 64: 41–63, 2017     

军事云环境下基于动态博弈的资源调度方法

针对军事云环境下联合指挥资源调度优化问题,综合考虑了多部队任务需求,多目标优化,多部队资源竞争等约束条件,运用动态博弈理论及方法,建立并提出了一种基于完全信息扩展博弈的资源调度模型及方法,提高了资源调度效率,兼顾了多部队利益,增加了联合作战效益。最后通过实验验证了其有效性及准确性。     

子弹均匀散布子母弹最有利火力分配方法

在将子弹均匀散布的椭圆区域等效转换为矩形区域的基础上,建立了适宽射向射击子母弹对矩形目标毁伤全概率计算的数学模型。通过函数转换和泛函分析给出了子弹均匀散布子母弹理想射击密度,得到了理想射击密度下对目标的毁伤概率计算公式。讨论了最有利火力分配方式的确定方法,给出了最优射向间隔和表尺差的计算公式,为便于实际应用,给出了最优火力分配计算中所需的3个参数的近似计算公式,最后给出了应用算例。     

基于时间窗的宽带阵列多目标干扰资源调度

随着宽带数字阵列技术和有源干扰技术的不断发展和成熟,舰载有源干扰设备的未来发展方向将是宽带数字阵列有源干扰系统。针对多目标干扰问题,提出了目标干扰时间窗概念和两种时间窗的处理方法,并建立干扰资源调度模型,通过仿真计算和对比分析,得出基于模糊时间窗的资源调度模型性能优于基于硬时间窗的资源调度模型,能够对干扰资源进行合理的调度,提高宽带阵列多目标干扰能力。     

大学自习教室优化设置研究

针对目前大学自习教室资源浪费普遍存在的现象,将学生上自习与否视为独立同分布随机变量,从自习教室的管理与维护成本、电费成本以及学生的满意度3个方面出发,建立了双目标随机规划模型,并在模型基础上提出了大学自习教室设置的一般方法。通过实例分析,对模型的正确性和有效性进行了论证。结果表明:在各种情况下,该模型都能很好地解决自习教室设置这一问题,并且能在学生满意度较高的条件下,节约能源13%以上。该模型可以有效地对自习教室进行优化设置,不仅提高了资源利用水平,而且节约了能源。     

Inspection games with local and global allocation bounds

This article discusses a two‐player noncooperative nonzero‐sum inspection game. There are multiple sites that are subject to potential inspection by the first player (an inspector). The second player (potentially a violator) has to choose a vector of violation probabilities over the sites, so that the sum of these probabilities do not exceed one. An efficient method is introduced to compute all Nash equilibria parametrically in the amount of resource that is available to the inspector. Sensitivity analysis reveals nonmonotonicity of the equilibrium utility of the inspector, considered as a function of the amount of resource that is available to it; a phenomenon which is a variant of the well‐known Braess paradox. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013